XAUUSD Gold Forecast And Technical Analysis Week 19-23 March
Would you dare to trade on Gold this week?
After months of speculations, Gala Night is almost here and we finally will be able to see if it’s a Horror Movie or Comedy for Gold investors.
The producer and the director of the movie are FED and the leading actor is Gold.
Gold trades in its narrowest range since 2012. Geopolitical uncertainty is providing critical support while the threat of rising interest rates weighs on prices.
Market players agree that interest rates are moving higher this week. Markets see a 25-basis-point hike as all but guaranteed. The question that has sidelined gold investors has been the number of interest-rate hikes for the rest of the year. Investors are anxious to see how hawkish the central bank will be.
And the general opinion is : “Inflation is running high enough that the Fed will not be dovish. It’s now a question of how hawkish they will be”
The tone of FED statement will be the leading factor in the direction of the Gold Prices.
Better to look at the bigger picture first.
Gold ended the week at 1313, testing support within its recent trading channel.
What the Daily Chart is telling us:
- The main trend is still bullish.
- Price is testing the channel support. EMA 100 and EMA 200 are below the price. Breaking below EMA 100 may lead the price EMA 200 support at 1296 – the lower band of the ascending channel.
- 1281 support must be broken in order to speak about a trend reversal.
- 1328 is still the important resistance and Gold needs to make a few Daily closings above 1328 to continue its bullish move.
Let us take a look at 4 Hours Chart.
- Descending channel. Price is below all main EMAs. BEARISH!!
- A triangle? Probably.
- 1.308 and 1303 are the intraday supports.
- Breaking below 1304 would lead the prices 1296 “Historical Support”
Our Gold trading strategy will be :
As a longterm trader:
The trend is still bullish and if the price remains above 1296; we will continue to buy GOLD.
Levels to buy:
- By the pullback to 1296 – Stop Loss 1269, Target 1356 –
- By the breakout of 1328 – Stop Loss 1269, Target 1408 –
Levels to sell: Daily closing below 1296 Target 1270 and 1254
As a Daytrader:
- Sell break below 1308 – Target 1303, 1296
- Buy break above 1320 – Target 1328 and add long above 1328 –
DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money on.