XAUUSD Gold Forecast: NFP and Trade Wars on focus
Gold is trading in a Bull Market. What are driving gold prices higher?
- Safe Haven Demand
- Physical Gold Purchases by Central Banks and ETFs. I have posted the ETF’s Gold Positions last week. The Indian CB announced that it increased its gold reserves to 618 tons by increasing 52 tons in the 2018-19 period.
- Market’s expectations of a rate cut cycle from the FED.
On the other hand, there is a strong demand for USD.
NFP data is scheduled to release on Friday. Market players will be looking for hints about the FED’s next move.
A Bearish Crab pattern is in play on the Weekly Chart. RSI is overbought and headed South.
The first target of the pattern is 1468 as long as the price can not break and close above 1562.
Gold prices retested 1551 but failed to break above and ended the week at 1520.
As seen on the headline H4 chart Gold prices tested 1520 but pulled back towards 1535. Bulls were not able to send the price above 1535 $ and price dropped by 15 $ during the last trading hours of the week.
We have sold Gold three times last week.
Our last short trade achieved its first target.
According to the Bloomberg breaking news: “The Trump administration slapped tariffs on roughly $110 billion in Chinese imports on Sunday, marking the latest escalation in a trade war that’s inflicting damage across the world economy.” Asia Opening is very important for the direction of the prices.
Near term bearish pressure remains as long as the prices hold below 1535.
Breakdown of the SMA100 H4 support at 1515 could accelerate the bearish move. 1500 is the psychological level and difficult to be broken. Below 1500, Bears will be focusing on 1478 $ adnd 1465 $
Bulls will be stronger if the price can not break below 1515 $. 1528 $ and 1535 $ are likely to be tested. Break and close above 1535 $ could lead the prices towards 1551 $ and 1562 $.
Summary: We keep our short position open and wait for the TP2.
I will update and send entry alerts as soon as we find a fresh trade opportunity.
New patterns may appear and some emerging patterns may become invalidated. We publish our live charts D1 H4 H1 and M30 with updates and entry alerts. – Members Only –
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DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not advice or recommendation to invest money
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