GOLD FORECAST: How deep can the strong Dollar push the Gold?
Warning: This is a midterm – longterm forecast and technical analysis and cannot give you any idea for short term trading.
We have mentioned that Gold is likely to test 1178 and 1156. Our reasons were clear enough technically and fundamentally. XAUUSD hit 1.160 USD and ended the week at 1.184. New visitors can read previous forecasts: XAUUSD GOLD FORECAST
Despite the dramatic fall on XAUUSD, ETF’s Gold positions did not fall as much. The physical demand is coming back. Those are the good news for the Gold Bulls.
The move in Gold is really a function of Dollars strength. However, one of the main question is whether Gold is losing its safe haven appeal? Some investors are wondering if the U.S. dollar is stealing gold’s safe-haven allure amid heightened trade tensions.
Gold Rally started in 2008. From 650 USD to 1900 USD. Gold Prices have been falling since 2012. Fibonacci 61.80 of XA move has been tested this week. ( 1157 – 1165 ). The question is: “ It was just a profit realisation or the bottom of the bearish move? “
If the Gold Prices breaks below Fibonacci 61.8, Fibonacci 78.6 is located at 950 USD.
As you will see on the chart, Gold broke out the triangle. Technically, it is not a good signal for the bulls.
If we look at the broken triangle, on the downside, 1.125 – Fibonacci 78.6 of XY – and 1.050 are the next support levels. The target of the formation is 950 USD – 1.272 Extension of XY and 78.6 of AB on the monthly chart.
We have a sub-Fibonacci Level 88.6 at 1.080. This level is important in our Gold scenario.
1360 has been tested several times. We see a double top and the neckline was 1.240. Prices have dropped 60 USD after breaking below 1.240. And the target of this formation is 1.110 – 1.120 levels.
Gold ended the week at 1.184 – above Fibonacci 61.80 – We may see a correction towards 1.190 and 1.208 USD.
We have 2 bearish patterns confirming the bearish continuation. We will publish them later for the members.
1. We do not predict the Gold prices will turn into a Bullish trend as long as the prices hold below 1.240. – Not before the second half of 2019 –
2. All pullbacks towards 1218 are selling opportunities. – Short term selling levels will be published for the members –
3. Breakout of Fib 61.8 – 1.160 – will carry the prices 1.124 and 1.100 .
4. There is a subregion between 1.100 and 1.080 where we can see a strong bullish reaction towards 1.210 USD. ( Stop Hunt of the new sellers )
5. This scenario is valid under the current fundamental facts. A dramatic change on the fundamentals would invalidate this scenario.
Rules To Keep In Your Mind: Trade Safe. Money Management is the key to success in forex trading. Do not risk more than 1% of your account in each trade.
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DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money
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