GBPUSD Overview: Eyes on BoE’s Super Thursday
Our latest short trade reached the target at 1.29200 and we closed the short trade with 120 pips profit.
Cable made a recovery attempt towards 1.30000 without a success. The pair reversed from 1.29700 and it is trading at 1.29300 as of writing.
Markets await the Bank of England monetary policy meeting scheduled at 12:00 GMT in order to determine near-term market bias. In addition to the monthly official bank rate announcement and monetary policy summary, the quarterly inflation report (QIR) and Governor Carney’s speech will be in focus.
Brexit uncertainty leaves the MPC in the back seat for now – we don’t expect a BoE hike until the Brexit air clears. Theresa May heads to Brussels to meet EU leaders in hopes of finding a breakthrough on the Withdrawal Agreement.
The BoE left its fourth quarter 2018 growth domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate forecasts unchanged around 1.5% and 3.9% while revising up the inflation prediction to 2.5% from 2.3% during November release. At the same time, the bank did cut its inflation and GDP expectations for the final quarter of the current year to 1.7% and 2.1% respectively against 1.8% and 2.2% earlier forecasts. It should be noted that the BoE kept favoring 3.9% unemployment for the longer-term as well.
Carney may prefer waiting for the clear signs on Brexit prior to announcing any possible rate moves but might not refrain from indicating a rate lift if the situation demands.
What will be the markets’ reaction? And what is the technical overview?
Personally, I will not take any position until Carney’s speech and markets’ reaction.
Looking at the matter technically; on the daily chart, Cable is still trading in the Bullish territory above EMA 50 and SMA100.
However, on the smaller charts, the price is below EMA 50 and Ichimoku Cloud.
1.28800 is the key intraday support. Breakout will carry the price 1.28170.
1.28170 is very important and the breakout of this key level may cause a trend reversal.
As seen on the harmonic chart, we have two patterns. The first white swan completed at 1.29200 and made 50 pips – 1.29700 –
The second pattern is another bullish white swan which would be completed at 1.28100.
Upside is capped by SMA100 and EMA 50 of H4 chart at 1.30000 and 1.30300
My longterm bias is clear. My year-end prediction of GBPUSD 1.3600 – 1.38000.
I will not take a new shortterm position until Carney’s speech.
I will publish my shortterm setup later.
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