EURUSD Forecast And Technical Overview
Fundamental Analysis And Economic Calendar Week Ahead
The market will focus on the US economy’s performance during the first quarter after China’s upbeat growth numbers this week. Aside from the US GDP, it’s going to be a rather quiet seven days for economic data due to the shortened Easter week
Not even the US, where markets will be open on Easter Monday unlike most Westerns countries, will be able to escape the shortage of data releases. The main numbers to watch will be existing home sales on Monday, new home sales on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Thursday, all for March.
US GDP: The government shutdown, the unusually cold weather, and what seems to be a typical pattern for weakness in Q1, coupled with the dramatic decline in the equity prices in Q4 18 (and the knock-on impact from the wealth effect) depressed expectations for growth at the start of the year. It looked like the economy was stagnating or worse. The inversion of parts of the yield curve was seized upon as further evidence that the end of the expansion was at hand. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker began the quarter with a 0.3% projection and, after the retail sales report, stands at 2.8%. The median economist forecast according to Bloomberg is 2.2%, which would match the Q4 18 pace.
It could boost broader market sentiment, which was already bolstered this week from stronger-than-forecast data out of China. However, with the dollar index still trading not too far from its 2018 highs, it may be difficult for the bulls to push the greenback significantly higher and the GDP report will likely struggle to break the dollar crosses outside of their current sideways ranges.
After this week’s disappointing flash Eurozone PMIs for April, the German Ifo business sentiment gauge should attract some attention on Wednesday. Ahead of that, the flash consumer confidence print for the euro area for April will be released on Tuesday.
Although there’s been some evidence that the slowdown in the Eurozone is bottoming out, the latest PMIs suggest a sustained recovery could be some time away, keeping a check on the euro’s recent rebound.
The EURUSD pair ended the week at 1.12400 below EMA 50, SMA100 and SMA200 Daily Chart.
We can see a clear and strong bearish trend on the Daily Chart. The selling pressure remains in the near term as long as the pair stays below 1.13600 resistance.
H4 Chart Overview:
After breaking the triangle at 1.12700 and 1.12500 support – triggered by upbeat US Retail Sales data -, the pair tested 1.12200 key support.
EURUSD made an attempt to retest and breakout 1.12500 resistance. Because of a lack of liquidity due to the holiday on Friday, we did not see a strong move on the pair.
Selling pressure remains as long as the pair stays below 1.12700.
The breakout of 1.12200 will send the pair 1.11800 – the ultimate target of the triangle pattern -.
We hold our short positions targeting 1.11800 and 1.10800.
Any intraday trade opportunity will be published for the members.
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