EURUSD Forecast And Technical Analysis
Dovish FED triggered the EURUSD’s bullish move and the attention shifts towards the ECB President Draghi’s speech, fresh Brexit and Italian political headlines.
Today’s EUR calendar has a plenty of events to watch out other than the central bank speakers. The German prelim CPI data due at 1300 GMT is likely to headline a busy day ahead. Ahead of the German inflation figures, the Swiss Q3 GDP figures at 0645 GMT, German jobs at 0855 GMT and the UK net lending to individuals data (0930 GMT) are slated for release. Also, a flurry of confidence numbers from the Eurozone due on the cards at 1000 GMT will be eyed for fresh incentives.
In the NA session, the US core PCE price index, personal spending and usual weekly jobless claims data will be reported at 1330 GMT. At the same time, the Canadian Q3 current account data. In the American mid-morning, the pending home sales report will be published at 1500 GMT. However, the main event risk for today remains the minutes of the November FOMC meeting due for release at 1900 GMT. Markets will look for fresh cues on the Fed’s policy tightening path, especially after the recent dovish comments by the Fed Chair Powell.
Central Banks Speak :
0800 GMT: ECB President Draghi and Vice-President Guindo
0900 GMT: ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Head Costa
1315 GMT: ECB Governing Council member Angeloni
1900 GMT: FOMC members Mester, Evans, Harker, Kashkari, Kaplan and Rosengren will appear on panels at an event organized by the Fed’s Boston branch.
One of the key data that markets will be focused today is Germany CPI. If CPI shows a bigger-than-expected slowdown in inflation growth while the core PCE remains at or above 2 percent, we may see the pair pulling back to 1.13*** support.
Technically:
The pair is trading just above 1.13800 key resistance at 1.13870. On the upside 1.14000 SMA 100 and 1.14400 will be the key resistance.
We see a bearish swan pattern is being printed on the H4 Chart and a bearish reversal seems most possible at 1.14000-1.14100 territory.
The pair is likekly to test 1.13500 first. German CPI will determine the intraday direction of EURUSD.
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