Crude Oil Forecast And Technical Analysis Week Oct 08 -12
WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large energy speculators reduced their bullish net positions again in the Crude Oil WTI Futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 548,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 2nd. This was a weekly reduction of -11,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 560,085 net contracts.
WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -583,629 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 12,561 contracts from the total net of -596,190 contracts reported the previous week.
Crude Oil prices pulled back from 76.50 to 74.00 USD last two days of the week. The main reason that we saw that pullback was that the oil market was driven by the sharp pop in treasury yields and a falling stock market. Besides, after trending straight up for almost four weeks in a row, the market was overbought and had overachieved its short term $75 a barrel target which could lead to some range bound trading for a while until we start to get even closer to the U.S. State Department November 4th deadline for Iranian oil buyers to completely cut their purchases to avoid American sanctions.
It looks like Crude Oil prices are entering into a consolidation period.
As we have shared in our channel, we were predicting a bearish correction and we have reached our intraday targets. As seen on the above daily chart, the price closed the week at the Fibonacci 23.6 retracement of the latest bullish impulse leg CD.
Looking at the smaller chart timeframes, on the H4 Chart, we see the prices testing the EMA 50 support. A firm breakout and closing below EMA 50 would trigger the shorter term bearish correction. Breakout of 73.44 may lead the prices 72.00 – 71.80 zone.
We believe that the buyers will be waiting at 72.00.
We will keep you updated…
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