Crude Oil Forecast And Technical Analysis 02-20-2018
Fundamentally, tensions in the Middle East supporting the Bullish Move in Crude Oil prices.
However, looming over oil markets is surging U.S. crude output, which has reached 10.38 million bpd, up by more than 23% since mid-2016. The U.S. has already surpassed top exporter Saudi Arabia and is expected to overtake Russia as the top producer by late 2018, with the output of more than 11 million bpd.
Rising drilling activity in the U.S. also points to further increases in output. With 800 active rigs, the U.S. rig count is now much higher than a year ago when only 631 rigs were active.
The relentless climb in U.S. production is capping oil prices and undermining efforts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to prop up prices by withholding production. OPEC has been cutting output by around 1.2 million bpd since January 2017, which has inadvertently allowed the U.S. to take more market share.
The main trend is still bullish. On the H4 chart, the price is above all major EMAs. And we see the golden cross of EMA 50,100 AND 200 which indicates a stronger bullish bias.
63.30 remains as a strong resistance.
Support zone is 61.70 – 61.30
Pullbacks towards 61.70 can be used as buying opportunities.
Another buying opportunity is close above 63.30 and the target will be 65.40-65.60
62.50 MM 8/8. Bullish intraday bias will continue as long as the price remains above 62.50.
On the downside: 62.11, 61.72 and 61.33 ( Pullback Levels to use as buying opportunities )
On the upside: 62.89 and 63.28. ( Above 63.28, the new midterm target will be 65.40)
DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money on.