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AUDUSD Forecast And Technical Overview

AUDUSD Forecast And Technical Overview

Economic Calendar the week:

April 15th, Monday

AUD China PPI, AUD RBA Minutes, USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

April 16th, Tuesday

AUD China GDP, Industrial Production USD US Industrial Production

April 17th, Wednesday

AUD Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Employment Report

April 18th, Thursday

USD Retails Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr), Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI

April 19th, Friday

USD Building Permits, Housing Starts

We have a heavy data week ahead. At the beginning of the day, China GDP may impact AUSD.

China Report: Growth probably slowed.

“A bit of pep in recent Chinese numbers is encouraging. At least as important as the short-term bounce, though, is the long-term trajectory. The Middle Kingdom may lose its exceptionalism and start looking more like the U.S. and Europe in ways that seemed barely conceivable during the 1990s and the first decade of this century, when China mania was in full bloom.

Much helium has been expended on projections that China’s gross domestic product will surpass the U.S.’s sometime in the coming decade; very little attention has been paid to what might happen after that.

First, let’s look at the recent boomlet. China slowed significantly into the end of last year. Since then, things have been looking better, albeit from a low base. The closely watched manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.5 in March from 49.2 the previous month, crossing back into expansion territory. While this is the biggest increase since 2012, the current level still trails the 51-plus average over the past decade. A jump in consumer prices and firmer factory prices have added to the idea things are on the mend.

Small Peak in a Deep Valley
China’s PMI rise is well and good, but context also matters

This week, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its growth forecasts for the world and some major economies. China was an exception; it went up a smidge, to 6.3%  from 6.2 % In fact, things are looking brighter, with the housing scene improving and the Shanghai composite index climbing almost a third so far this year.

Nevertheless, there is a limit to what policy can do when long-term forces shape a pronounced slackening. In a thoughtful note last week, Capital Economics posits that China will slow to growth of about 2%  by 2030.

AUDUSD Technical Overview:

The Bearish Gartley pattern on the H4 chart and Bearish Three Drives pattern on the H1 chart were completed. We have sold AUDUSD at 0.71880 on Friday. Our targets are 0.7165 and 0.71400.

As seen on the above H1 chart Aussie is trading in an ascending channel. If it breaks out the channel at 0.71400, it will be the end of the near term Bullish Trend. Bears will try to send the pair towards 0.71250 and 0.71100.

The upside is capped by SMA 200 Daily at 0.72000. The bearish pressure will continue as long as the pair stays below 0.7200.

I will update as soon as we have a fresh opportunity.

Update: We have reached 0.71400. I have a bullish harmonic pattern and I will update.

 

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DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not advice or recommendation to invest money

AUDUSD: Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Chartreaderpro does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility

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