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AUDUSD Forecast: China,Trade War, RBA Triangle

AUDUSD Forecast: China,Trade War, RBA Triangle

Fundamentals:

US Side is clear.

  • Dovish Comments from Fed Members.
  • NFP below the expectations.
  • A positive wage data.
  • CPI week ahead

You can read EURUSD Forecast of the Week to see the details of US Fundamentals

The direction of the pair will be determined by the Chinese Data, US CPI and Trade War.

AUDUSD  gapped higher at the weekly opening after the G-20 meeting ended with a 90-day truce between the US and China. However, the developments through the week cooled down the hopes for an easy way out.

The RBA met this week, and as largely expected, left the official interest rate on hold at a record low of 1.5%. And Debelle added fuel to fire saying that a rate cut is not out of the table if economic conditions deteriorate.

Australian AIG indexes for November showed that business activity remains weak, as the Construction index eased to 44.5, while the Manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace, scoring 51.3. The positive note came from the Services Index, up in the month to 55.1 from 51.1 in October.

China will release  trade balance and inflation data, followed by the retail sales and industrial production figures. It is more likely to affect the AUDUSD pair than any other figures.

Technically:

 

I have published a bullish reversal pattern and our first target was 0.72500. The pair reversed from  0.72400 without hitting our target and ended the week at 0.71980 – a few pips below our entry -.

On the daily chart the pair closed below EMA 50 and above the cloud. It is re-entering the negative territory. Bulls will try to hold the pair above 0.71700 cloud support. If we see a firm daily closing below the cloud we can start to talk about a fresh sell-off. 0.71400, 0.70800 and 0.70200 will be the targets of the pair.

On the upside 0.72630 is the key resistance and the bearish pressure will renain on the pair as long as it stays below the 72630 resistance.

 

 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money

AUDUSD Forecast: Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Chartreaderpro does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

 

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